Thursday links: surprise modeling

abnormalreturns
March 13th, 2008

Some reasons why the financial media focuses on stocks and largely ignores bonds. (Market Movers)

The TLSF helped narrow MBS spreads. (Real Time Economics)

Did the Fed inadvertently kill Carlyle Capital? (Alea, FT Alphaville, DealBook)

Some private equity firms have depleted their “reputational capital” in attempts to become diversified alternative asset managers. (Going Private)

Some high profile, private equity firms are stepping up their investments in distressed debt. (DealBook)

Another hedge fund is going public via a SPAC merger. (DealBook)

Smaller fund companies may face increasing pressure to consolidate. (InvestmentNews)

Signs point to an intermediate bottom. (Trader’s Narrative)

Oil stocks are lagging the big run up in oil prices. (MarketBeat)

What new ETFs would you like to see? (ETF Trends)

“At the end of the day, most academics seem to now believe that markets are pretty efficient, but not perfectly efficient.” (All About Alpha)

Odds of a recession: economists vs. the market. (Bespoke Investment Group)

CFOs think the recession has already started. (Big Picture)

What is the impact of lower housing prices on consumer spending? (Calculated Risk)

Has the Brazilian economy reached an inflection point? (Infectious Greed)

An analysis of the uneven economics of the split between blog aggregator Seeking Alpha and its contributors. In short, “It’s hard to monetize viewers that don’t visit!” (Bill Rempel)

An interview with Eddie Elfenbein. (StockTickr)

What is “surprise modeling” and how might it be applied to the financial markets? (Technology Review)

Have we missed an interesting post in the investment blogosphere? Feel free to drop Abnormal Returns a line.