Sunday links: unavoidable recession

“If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable.” (NYTimes.com)

“(A) weird financial dynamic seems to be feeding on itself in an unusually violent fashion.” (Marginal Revolution)

“My feeling is that the credit markets are hysterical. They’re not clearing, they’re not acting efficiently, and spreads, especially on highly-rated debt, are much higher than credit risk alone could ever account for. ” (Market Movers)

“What we are witnessing is an incremental, partial nationalization of the US banking system.” (Interfluidity)

Are we facing a “$325 billion systematic margin call“? (Alea)

“So with inflation too high and the natural rate of unemployment rising, the Fed should be thinking of hiking rates, not lowering them further.” (Maverecon Blog)

Not that it matters, but the odds of 50 bp Fed funds rate cut is hovering around 50%. (naked capitalism)

More analysis of the recessionary employment figures. (Economist’s View, Freakonomics, Econbrowser)

Nice charts of the “business cycle in action.” (Odd Numbers, Big Picture)

Relative value is beginning to appear in MBS-land. (Accrued Interest)

Put sellers and some clues on how next week might play out. (Daily Options Report)

How various hedge fund indices have performed versus the S&P 500. (Bespoke Investment Group)

Research shows active investing is a “significantly negative-sum game.” (NYTimes.com)

There is something to be said for building your own investment portfolio. (WSJ.com)

More on asset allocation in constructing your long term investment portfolio. (InVivoAnalytics.com)

Is an easier ETF approval process is good for industry, but is it good for investors? (IndexUniverse.com)

There is no such thing as a “buy of a lifetime.” (Howard Lindzon)

Eight, largely depressing, mega-themes for investors. (Information Arbitrage)

“Farmers the world over are producing flat-out.” (NYTimes.com)

“What do the ethanol and subprime mortgage meltdowns have in common?” (Boston Globe via Mankiw Blog)

The results of an interesting blog micropayments experiment. (26econ.com)

Every successful startup does things a little differently. (Fred Wilson)

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